What will happen if dollar crashes




















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The Chinese credit crisis and global fuel crisis are likely to hit emerging economies harder than others. There are fears of economic slowdowns, credit defaults and loan repayment delays to the IMF and other global lending agencies," says Vijay L Bhambwani, head of research, Behavioural Technical Analysis, Equitymaster. Another reason for the rupee's fall is the dovishness of RBI in comparison to other central banks of emerging markets.

This coupled with inflationary concerns makes India's real rates less attractive compared to some of other emerging markets," says the report. The rupee was overvalued and volatility was close to multiyear lows until a few weeks ago.

The experts predict the rupee to continue to fall if the dollar continues to get stronger. Even though growth has slowed significantly since , the American economy still regularly outperforms its peers in Europe and Japan. The fundamental weakness of the U. This weakness is shared by every other major national currency in the world and is perceived as normal in the modern age. However, as recently as the s, it was considered a somewhat radical proposition.

Without the discipline imposed by a commodity-based currency standard such as gold , the worry is that governments might print too much money for political purposes or to conduct wars. If the Federal Reserve creates money and the U.

Fortunately for the United States, virtually every alternative currency is backed by similar economic policies. Even if the dollar faltered in absolute terms, it may still be stronger globally, due to its strength relative to the alternatives. There are some conceivable scenarios that might cause a sudden crisis for the dollar. The most realistic is the dual-threat of high inflation and high debt, a scenario in which rising consumer prices force the Fed to sharply raise interest rates.

Much of the national debt is made up of relatively short-term instruments, so a spike in rates would act like an adjustable-rate mortgage after the teaser period ends. If the U. Another option would involve some major power, such as China or a post-European Union Germany, reinstating a commodity-based standard and monopolizing the reserve currency space.

However, even in these scenarios, it is not clear that the dollar necessarily would collapse. The collapse of the dollar remains highly unlikely. Of the preconditions necessary to force a collapse, only the prospect of higher inflation appears reasonable.

Foreign exporters such as China and Japan do not want a dollar collapse because the United States is too important a customer. And even if the United States had to renegotiate or default on some debt obligations, there is little evidence that the world would let the dollar collapse and risk possible contagion. Rudiger Dornbusch and Juan Carlos de Pablo. University of Chicago Press, Adam Marton.

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